Speaking of Russia, the post-Revolutionary era under Lenin did see a self-imposed brain drain as much of the old intelligentsia and middle classes, not just the aristocracy, were effectively encouraged to flee abroad through violence and ostracism. Well into the 20s it was still doable for the officially "undesirable" classes (yes, they were legally designated as "former people") to emigrate. When Stalin came to power he firmly ended emigration and the borders became sealed to movement of people.
This time around we don't know how things will play out if Russia retreats behind a new iron curtain. A brain drain would happen only if it was allowable on both sides, the willingness of the West to take emigrants, and the willingness of Russia to let them leave. A brain drain from Ukraine is much more likely, which makes it much more problematic for a post-invasion Ukraine, whatever is left of it or in what form it is allowed to survive.
Dear Ed, I wonder whether you might have analysis, or views, on the long run effects of "brain drain"? I ask because while your data on the current emigration impact for Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics is alarming (for those countries), the long run impact of emigration would appear to be negligible once a new generation grows up. Ireland, for centuries an exporter of its talent, would appear to have every bit as capable and industrious a population today as any European neighbour. So the fact that so many left even as recently as the late 1980s does not appear to have harmed the countries prospects. Yrs. PH
Very interesting discussion. Could countries losing population try to make themselves more attractive to their own nationality or to immigrants? A place like Latvia can't fix its weather, of course, or its proximity to Russia, but maybe they could come up with some selling point.
Speaking of Russia, the post-Revolutionary era under Lenin did see a self-imposed brain drain as much of the old intelligentsia and middle classes, not just the aristocracy, were effectively encouraged to flee abroad through violence and ostracism. Well into the 20s it was still doable for the officially "undesirable" classes (yes, they were legally designated as "former people") to emigrate. When Stalin came to power he firmly ended emigration and the borders became sealed to movement of people.
This time around we don't know how things will play out if Russia retreats behind a new iron curtain. A brain drain would happen only if it was allowable on both sides, the willingness of the West to take emigrants, and the willingness of Russia to let them leave. A brain drain from Ukraine is much more likely, which makes it much more problematic for a post-invasion Ukraine, whatever is left of it or in what form it is allowed to survive.
Dear Ed, I wonder whether you might have analysis, or views, on the long run effects of "brain drain"? I ask because while your data on the current emigration impact for Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics is alarming (for those countries), the long run impact of emigration would appear to be negligible once a new generation grows up. Ireland, for centuries an exporter of its talent, would appear to have every bit as capable and industrious a population today as any European neighbour. So the fact that so many left even as recently as the late 1980s does not appear to have harmed the countries prospects. Yrs. PH
Very interesting discussion. Could countries losing population try to make themselves more attractive to their own nationality or to immigrants? A place like Latvia can't fix its weather, of course, or its proximity to Russia, but maybe they could come up with some selling point.